Click here for Alternative Futures for International Development, July 2012:
These futures were created for a democracy promotion organization in 2012 that was concerned by its nearly exclusive dependence on public donor funding. These futures which supposedly looked back on 2012 from the year 2017, contemplated a different international development sector in which public donor spending had fallen by 25 percent.

In hindsight, these futures proved quite prescient, having included the Russian invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014, the sharp cuts in USAID’s budgets that resulted from Republican majorities in both houses of Congress in 2016, and the emergence of China and Russia as spoilers to Western development objectives.

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Objective of Alternative Futures Scenario Building: Scenario planning reduces the risks of long-term planning and decision-making by helping participants to evaluate how they should respond to different future outcomes. By determining what you should do the same or differently, as a result of different futures, you identify the safe bets, those actions you find you need to take, regardless of what happens, and the game changing events and conditions that require you to take very different courses.

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